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Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Game Preview 04/27/19

The Miami Marlins will take on the Philadelphia Phillies in the third game of a four-game series at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Marlins will start Trevor Richards who’s still looking for his first win this season, while Jake Arrieta will get the starting nod for the Phillies. The tip-off is set at 6:05 PM ET. MLB: Saturday, April 27, 2019, Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 6:05 PM ET

The Marlins need to continue with a solid defensive performance

The Miami Marlins upset the Phillies at the start of the series, winning the opener 3-1 thanks to Starlin Castro’s two-run homer in the 10th inning. Caleb Smith pitched six innings to struck out eight along with just one walk, allowing seven hits and a run. It was Miami’s second straight win at Citizens Bank Park. The Marlins are scoring just 2.72 runs per game (30th in the league) while tallying a .220 batting average (27th) and a .281 on-base percentage (28th). They are allowing 4.60 runs in a return (16th in the league) with a 4.36 ERA (18th).

Trevor Richards will take the mound for the Marlins tonight, and he’s 0-3 in five starts this season with a 3.72 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, 28 strikeouts, and 16 walks, allowing 20 hits and 12 earned runs in 29 innings of work. Richards is 4-12 in his career with a 4.29 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP, while the right-hander is 1-2 in four starts against Philadelphia. Starlin Castro and Miguel Rojas will lead the Marlins bats. Castro has 25 hits, three home runs, eight RBIs, a .258 batting average, and a .314 on-base percentage, while Rojas has 20 hits, six RBIs, a .278 batting average, and a .329 on-base percentage.

The Phillies need their offense back on the right track

The Philadelphia Phillies had just four hits in the opening game of the series with Miami, scoring a single run for the third time in their last five outings. The Phillies defeated the Mets 6-0 prior to this series, but they also suffered a tough 9-0 defeat in New York. Philadelphia is averaging 4.96 runs per contest (12th in the league) while recording a .245 batting average (16th) and a .333 on-base percentage (13th). On the other side, the Phillies are allowing 4.84 runs per game (19th in the league) with a 4.33 ERA (17th).

Jake Arrieta will take the hill for the Phillies tonight, and the right-hander is 3-2 in his five starts this season with a 2.65 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, 25 strikeouts, and 13 walks, allowing 26 hits and ten earned runs in 34 innings of work. Arrieta is 6-1 in his nine starts against the Marlins with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP, while he’s 101-69 in a career with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. Rhys Hoskins and Maikel Franco will lead the Phillies’ bats. Hoskins has 24 hits, seven home runs, 20 RBIs, a .261 batting average, and a .387 on-base percentage, while Franco has 23 hits, six homers, 19 RBIs, a .258 batting average, and a .350 on-base percentage.

Trends:

Miami Marlins:

•     4-12 in the last 16 road matchups with Philadelphia

•     5-15 in the last 20 games on the road

  • 6-14 in the last 20 outings as underdogs

Philadelphia Phillies:  

•     10-5 in the last 15 games at home as favorites

  • 8-4 in the last 12 home meetings with the NL East
  • Jake Arrieta is 6-1 against Miami

The Winner Prediction

The Phillies have to break out of their funk and there’s no better opportunity than a home matchup with the Marlins. Jake Arrieta should be a key factor tonight, and I expect him to shut down the Marlins’ bats, so I’m backing the Phillies to win by two or more runs.

The Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+110)  

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