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Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals Free Pick 07/04/19

The Miami Marlins will be taking on their NL East nemesis Washington Nationals. Mid-Atlantic Sports Network will showcase the matchup and the game gets underway at 11:05 a.m. ET.

Marlins vs. Nationals Odds

Miami (+165) is coming into this one as the underdog to Washington (-175) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this game at 10 runs. The odds for wagering on the game’s total stand at -115 for the under and -105 for the over. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the odds standing at Marlins +1.5 runs (-135) and Nationals -1.5 runs (+115).

The Nationals are 44-41 straight up (SU) and 43-41 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 10.1 units for moneyline bettors and 1.9 units ATS. Washington has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in three of those seven. The Marlins are 32-52 SU and have gone 41-42 ATS. In total, the team’s lost 0.1 units for moneyline bettors and 10.1 units ATS. Miami is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the over has cashed in four of those seven.

Nationals games have an over/under record of 42-36-6 so far in 2019. Miami has an over/under record of 38-40-5.

The right-handed Elieser Hernandez is the projected starter for the visiting Marlins. Hernandez is 1-2 with a 4.07 ERA and 26 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Nationals this year and only made one start against them in 2018 (0-1, 9.82 ERA and seven strikeouts over 11 innings).

The Nationals are turning to Anibal Sanchez (4-6, 3.82 ERA). Sanchez has 73 punchouts and 30 walks to his name, along with a WHIP of 1.33. Sanchez is 0-1 with six strikeouts and a 5.06 ERA in one start against Miami this year.

Washington’s pitchers have given up 4.7 runs per game overall this season as a unit. Its starters have an ERA of 3.63, a WHIP of 1.18 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.9. The bullpen has a 6.28 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and 9.3 K/9. In 41 divisional games, Nationals starters have an ERA of 3.06 and the bullpen’s ERA is 7.90.

Washington’s offense is putting up 4.9 runs per contest, including 5.6 per game against divisional foes and 3.2 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .230/.306/.400 over its last five games and is 4-1 SU during that stretch.

Outfielders Adam Eaton and Juan Soto have led the way for the Nationals’ offense this year. Eaton is slashing .275/.359/.377 with six home runs, 21 RBIs and 47 runs scored, while Soto’s line is .301/.407/.551 with 15 homers, 54 RBIs and 51 runs scored.

In the visiting dugout, Miami’s pitchers have allowed 4.6 runs per game and its starters own a 3.94 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 8.12 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.99, along with a K-per-9 of 9.32.

The Marlins offense has slashed .238/.298/.355 on its way to 3.6 runs scored per game this year, including 3.6 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.8 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).

Miami’s hitters have been paced by first baseman Miguel Rojas and third baseman Brian Anderson. Rojas is slashing .297/.357/.367 with 85 hits, 24 RBIs and 30 runs scored. Anderson is hitting .253/.337/.425 with 78 hits, 11 homers, 38 RBIs and 33 runs scored.

The Marlins have gained 2.0 units and are 29-33 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 26 of those games, compared to 32 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Nationals have lost 3.7 units and are 33-29 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in 31 of those games, compared to 28 that’ve gone under.

Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Nationals, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER


Betting Trends

The under has hit in just one of Miami’s last seven games.

The Marlins have a team OPS of .653 this season and an OPS of .651 against right-handed pitchers. The Nationals’ OPS sits at .762 overall and .726 versus righties.

The Nationals have won seven of their last eight games SU.

Miami has recorded 22.2 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 23.2 over its last five.

The Marlins have hit eight home runs in their last 10 games. The Nationals have hit 14 over their last 10.

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